News Cycle

A look at the news, politics and journalism in today’s 24-hour media.

Surprise! Obama’s Lead Isn’t Big Enough

leave a comment »


Politico.com is the latest news organization to pose the question: If Sen. Obama is so popular and the Republicans are not, why doesn’t he have a huge lead?

It’s rather simple actually, and David Paul Kuhn does a good job at explaining it. He points out that Obama’s strength comes from three groups: the youth, African-Americans and Hispanics. Each of the three groups form a shaky coalition at best.

A couple things about polls. First and foremost, anytime you hear of Obama leading in a national poll keep this in mind: It just doesn’t matter. It’s not a national election. If anything, Democrats should have longer memories (Does 2000 ring a bell?) It’s 51 individual elections on the same day. Heck, a candidate could win just 11 states by one vote and not even be on the ballot elsewhere and win the election.

And another thing, it’s August. Most Americans are not focused in on the election. Lets see what the country thinks in late October.

Finally, with all these stories about Obama’s lead not being big enough, is there a sense out there that some people in the media are disappointed or scared?

Advertisements

Written by newscycle

August 6, 2008 at 10:25 am

Posted in Obama, Politics, Polling

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: