Gallup Shows McCain Now Up By 15 With Independents

Gallup announced today that Sen. John McCain is surging with independents, and now has a 15-percentage-point lead in that demographic.

The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters’ general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates. Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48% of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46%, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.

The poll shows McCain with a 52-to-37 preference among independents who are registered voters.

The events on the Republican stage in St. Paul, Minn., from Sept. 2-4 appear to have provided two important boosts to the McCain-Palin ticket.

First, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 5-7, McCain has energized his Republican base and, as a result, has potentially strengthened his positioning on Election Day with “likely voters.” Second, as the Gallup Poll Daily trends discussed here show, voter movement toward McCain since the Republican convention occurred mainly with independents, thus broadening McCain’s appeal beyond the party.

Republicans had already lined up for McCain before the convention started. Now, they are excited, and are joined by more independents than at any other time in the campaign. Those gains may not last — “bounces” rarely do — but they enable McCain to launch the next phase of the campaign with the knowledge of what his winning coalition might look like.